[Opensource] software industry trends [off-topic] (was Maturing Framework market)

[Sandra Cann]

What happens when we extend the question of whether Expresso is better than
commercial offerings to the broader software market? Generally speaking,
will the work of open-source be as good as the innovation and value that the
commercial companies create?

The market segment, the framework market, is presently one example where
this is true and where the maturity of open source is having an adverse
impact on commercial software vendors. Another might be the app server
market. Do you think this is likely to happen generally in various software
market segments? Or just in certain market segments?

I used to be think that open source worked well for the foundation
technologies but not so much for applications per se. Has this changed too?
Take the content management market for example. The leader in this market
had a 75% reduction in software sales last year. Gartner is predicting that
open source software projects may mature in about 2 years. What affect will
this have? 

Some months ago I installed Redhat 8.0 on a system on my network. I was
quite frankly blown away by its ease of setup and use. It comes with a MS
compatible word processor and outlook like email program. I hooked it up to
the network with much less effort than my XP box. When I compare this to my
MS system which I regularly have problems with (2 weeks ago outlook stopped
working when one day after an update it decided it no longer liked my
firewall software) that took a couple days to track down and fix. Errgghh.
And I pay for that? But it does raise the question how do commercial
software companies, MS being just one example, survive longer term with
mature great OSS software? 

While the community collaboration makes open source work; without at least
one lead developer per se working nearly fulltime on Expresso the project
would rapidly fall behind. I believe a committed leader is true of all
successful open source projects. Since no one can afford to work for
nothing, some company (i.e. Sun, IBM, end user corporations etc) is
ultimately paying for open source projects to succeed. As a generality,
without someone funding the lead developers' work I believe that OSS falters
and is not sustainable.  Do you agree? 

During this recession one may have anticipated that budget cuts might have
affected this effort but for the most part I haven't seen it - with
exception of VC funded OSS like Barracuda and Arsdigita. What I am noticing
is more and more open source projects moving in the same direction as jcorp
with the services offerings to help offset costs; and commercial companies
also proactively focusing more on services offerings. 

When crunch time hits (OSS as mature as commercial) the software industry,
more than it has already with the recession, do you see companies cutting
back on their funding to have their developers involved in OSS?

Do you think software companies shifting emphasis to service will be enough
to sustain companies? This is a big question I have - and it is this
question that I most am looking for your valued response. 

Let me hear your comments.....

Sandra